An autumn and, it is feared, also a winter characterized by widespread pessimism.
The increase in prices and costs across all sectors has led to a decline in both consumer confidence and the composite business climate index in October 2023. According to data published by Istat, the former rose from 105.4 to 101.6; while the second from 104.9 to 103.9.
“The consumer confidence index falls for the fourth month in a row to reach the lowest value since January 2023 – they explain from the institute – There is a general deterioration of all nine variables that make up the indicator, with the exception of expectations on unemployment, which are improving, and opinions on the economic situation of the family, whose balance is slightly increasing.
The four indicators calculated monthly, starting from the same components, show negative dynamics: the economic climate and the future climate record the most significant decreases (the first goes from 115.2 to 110.5 and the second from 113.2 to 107, 7); the current climate drops from 100.2 to 97.4 and the personal climate drops from 102.2 to 98.6.
In relation to companies, a decline in the confidence index is expected, albeit to varying degrees, in the manufacturing and services sectors.
However, trust is only improving in the construction sector.
More specifically, the manufacturing confidence index falls from 96.4 to 96.0; The decline is more pronounced in market-related services and retail, with the index rising from 100.5 to 98.1 and from 107.1 to 106, respectively.
In the construction industry, however, the indicator increases (from 160.9 to 163.8). As for the components of the confidence indices, in the manufacturing sector, sentiments on orders are deteriorating, while expectations for production are rising and inventories are expected to decline slightly. In construction, all components are improved.
Let’s continue Market servicesBoth opinions on orders and business performance are deteriorating while expectations for orders are rising. In the retail sector, sales estimates are characterized by optimism, but inventories are piling up and a Deterioration in sales expectations.
According to the usual quarterly production capacity questions A decline in plant utilization is expected for manufacturing companies in the third quarter of 2023.
In October, explains Istat, “the decline in the business confidence index extends to all sectors except construction. The overall index reached its lowest value since April 2021.” (Ed