The Meloni Schlein squadron. “Now it is the right that points to the party of the nation that speaks to all”

Fabio Martini, after the government was archived, Italian politics questions the results, which highlight some points worth reflecting on: the long wave of the right continues, so much so that it wins these governments that Despite everything, the crisis of the Democratic Party is confirmed by the change of secretariat and, more generally, of the centre-left movement. We see, as far as possible, the possible evolution of the political framework for each political actor. You start with the right. Giorgia Meloni has the wind in her sails, firmly focused on the European elections, a crucial turning point for the fate of Europe in the years to come. Then of course there are the challenges of the Pnrr and the reforms. But everything seems subordinate to the achievement of the European goal, namely changing the historical majority that has governed Europe up until now. Is that so?

“President Meloni understood immediately that the game of governments is now being played in Europe. For you, leader of the Conservatives, the quest for a new political majority in Europe on the axis with the EPP is a legitimate political goal. How desirable and how feasible for them remains to be seen. With Realpolitik categories, this scenario would not be desirable for the Prime Minister, as she would find herself with Germany and France in opposition to the new European “government” structure: at the top are the two leading countries of the Union, the EPP and attributed to the Conservatives. However, such a scenario also brings with it objective difficulties. First, parliament numbers are needed, which currently do not exist. But since this majority would also include anti-European and anti-Atlantic political forces, one wonders: would the entire EPP be willing to make such a bet? And would the powerful powers of Europe allow such a scenario, on the eve of the American elections at that?”

What obstacles in Italy could slow down or stop this process and, more generally, the path of government? The Allies? The economy?

“The government will have a single thought until spring 2024: to consolidate and adopt the most important reforms in order to reach a consensus in view of the European elections that will be held in a year’s time.” The local elections have shown without fear of contradiction that the country’s honeymoon will continue with the centre-right movement. In the coming months the government must hope that the recovery that has started will not stop, but from this point of view the first hidden signs are not encouraging. Cash is low and for this reason too he will have to do the impossible not to throw the last 2023 installment of the Pnrr overboard, because the boomerang effect would have incalculable repercussions. And then there is a double ‘enemy’ which we could summarize as follows: the Meloni government is undermined by its own ‘bulimia’ and by the lack of a credible opposition capable of putting pressure on the majority and to “improve” them. By bulimia I mean above all a fear of doing and surprising, even a fear of occupying spaces hitherto controlled by the left, and a strong call for centralization visible to all. The history of the Court of Auditors is exemplary: the government has its rationale on the merits, but politically the timing and content of the doctrinal change could have been calibrated differently.”

So We come to the other half of the field, that is, the PD and the centre-left party. It was not a pleasant awakening for Elly Schlein. Old and new nodes for the PD have surfaced. For example, the roots, the local ruling class, have proven weak (the “strongholds” no longer exist). Pretty much trouble…

“The defeat of the Democrats was very clear, with few precedents in the recent history of the opposition in this country. The Democratic Party icon has suffered a nearly 10 percent loss in media distraction in key communities; The defeats in “red” cities like Pisa, where Schlein won the primaries, are solidifying, confirming the delicacy of an electoral system that cannot endure the race for internal leadership of a candidate registered only weeks before. Nobody has analyzed where the PD won: in Brescia, where the center-left party has ruled for 26 of the last 31, where there is still a strong Catholic-Democratic presence, led by an influential family like the is supported by the Bazolis and where a candidate of socialist culture has won and returned from a consolidated administrative experience. The Democratic Party wins in Vicenza, a white city and then in a Northern League city, with a candidate who expresses a culture of government and has asked Schlein not to appear in the city during the election campaign.”

Let’s talk about Elly Schlein. The strong feeling is that he is unable to bring any sense of governance to his proposals and policy line (he sometimes lapses into radicalism). Is that so?

“Elly Schlein was chosen because she is new and discontinuous, but belongs to a political force that, in its best moments and in its vocation, has always expressed a culture of government, a culture of possible change. The Ulivo-Pd was until five to six years ago, albeit between limits and falls, the only party in the country, according to the definition of former PCI leader Alfredo Reichlin, who alluded to a political force capable of expanding loaded with a broader horizon than that of his constituents. A vocation also typical of catholic democrats like Romano Prodi, Beniamino Andreatta, Pierluigi Castagnetti or an atypical character like Arturo Parisi. In recent years, the culture of government that came from the DC and the PCI has diluted into a small cabotage government that saw respected ministers as protagonists who, to offset this minimalism, blew the trumpets of verbal extremism. With Schlein, this second vocation was accentuated and tended toward sectarianism. As the history of the Turin Book Fair shows, instead of condemning a repeated and violent protest, Schlein stigmatized an inexplicable authoritarianism of the government. Mattarella condemned this protest, Prodi called Schlein’s attitude an own goal.

In the coming months we will see how the Meloni-Schlein bipolarity intensifies: will it stay that way until the European Championships? What could be the trump card for both?

“Until now, the dualism between the two only existed for the media, which needed more or less real duels. For now, Schlein only speaks to his primary constituents, a minority among those looking to the centre-left, and so he is only interested in bipolarity at the core of his “Bartalian” narrative: It’s all wrong, it all needs to be made new. So far she’s been obsessed with the idea of ​​maintaining her purity: if she persists, it’s easy to imagine further decline, if she engages in a real duel with Meloni, the government will benefit too. Because today the system is lame: while the government, despite mistakes and the absence of a real ruling class, “walks” alongside the prime minister, on the other side of the barricade there is a Democratic Party that always rumbles in the same tone. One might even imagine that whoever is destined to challenge Meloni in the next few Policies has yet to emerge, but to this day we can appreciate that Schlein has forgotten Reichlin’s lesson and, paradoxically, risks threatening Meloni handing over the baton: it is that he is trying to transform his own party into a majority party or, in other words, into the party of the nation. Along with strong signals of identity rights, attention to middle-low incomes and dialogue with unions signal at least an effort to break out of the right-wing insularity that thinks only of the individualistic classes. A very complicated plan to implement with this political class, but surely in the current sectarian configuration the left runs the risk of abandoning two areas that have always been “its own” and leaving them to the right: the quest for an authoritative one and not overbearing cultural hegemony and the interclassist vision in the best sense of the word.

Are Salvini and Berlusconi finally “domesticated”?

Matteo Salvini recharges after the most spectacular and self-destructive own goal in the history of the Second Republic, proving to be an active and cooperative ally and working behind the scenes on the things that interest him. With the European Championship approaching, it will emphasize identity without undermining loyalty. Berlusconi is struggling with his physical decay and with “family quarrels” of not great political depth, and this will highlight in those around him a fact always present in Forza Italia’s thirty-year presence: the protection of companies. Of course, for Forza Italia, the course of the European elections is a big risk, but in the end, occupying a moderate sector in the center-right party always guarantees an electoral reserve capable of keeping the corporate party open, which ensures security companies -Company ” .

It will also be difficult months for Conte. The Five Stars are not doing well. Will the temptation of isolationism increase?

“It will grow, as the incredible – because unworkable – referendum on military spending showed. But the Five Stars have been in an identity crisis for years that will be difficult to reverse: from an anti-system party to a party always in government and post-Citizenship Income reform as the “union” of the unemployed was disarmed in the south. After the European Championship, Conte will leave the scene and the Five Stars will try to reinvent themselves, probably under female leadership.”

For Calenda and Renzi?

“After the fireworks of the last few months, they can’t be put back together. The election penny amassed by the two in Politiche has shrunk due to their drama, and if they presented themselves together, not only would they be implausible in the re-marriage, but they would end up adding up their dislikes: the Anti-Calenda voters and anti-Renzi voters would be repelled by the presence of either. Barring twists and turns, which are always possible in such a short-lived politics, the two will wage a merciless battle to capture the 4 percent essential to getting into the European Parliament. A vote on the net: Both at 3.9 would destroy everything. But we are still confronted with the latest egoolatric paradox in Italian politics; While Schlein’s sectarian Democratic Party has opened up vast space for left-wing government, the two forces that could give this electorate a voice are going to war.”

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