The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowers Italian GDP estimates for 2023 and 2024, as part of a general slowdown in the global economy, mainly affecting developed countries.
For the current year, in your report World economic outlook The IMF, presented in Marrakesh, forecasts growth of 0.7% for our country, a decrease of 0.4% compared to last year Forecast for Julyalthough they had instead been revised upwards (+1.1%).
Italy is also forecast to grow by 0.7% in 2024, down 0.2% from previous estimates.
IMF analysts emphasize that the global economy has slowed but not collapsed following the impact of the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and inflation.
The probability of a soft landing scenario therefore increases if the fight against inflation initiated by the main central banks by tightening monetary policy, which leads to a cooling of prices (from 9.2% to 5.2% worldwide this year) , recession shows no effect.
Although the slowdown is general in nature, it appears to be more pronounced in developed countries, and remarkably so Exception of the United States which, on the contrary, leads to an increase in estimates compared to emerging and developing countries to +2.1% of GDP this year and 1.5% next year.
Then there is the sudden slowdown Chinawhich is facing the impact of the housing crisis and weakening confidence and has seen its forecasts cut to +5% in 2023 and +4.2% next year.