Despite the slowdown in the economy recorded over the last six months due to a very difficult international situation, our country has overcome the negative impact of the pandemic crisis, high energy prices and exponential interest rate growth better than its main European competitors. of interest over the last year and a half. In other words, between 2019 (pre-Covid year) and 2023 Italy recorded a GDP change of +3 percent, compared to +2.3 in Spain, +1.8 in France and +0.7 in Germany. This is the result of the CGIA.
Tourism, manufacturing, household consumption, investment and exports are supported this shot which, as I said, it was the “most brilliant” among the major Eurozone countries. A positive trend that caused the employment rate to rise to 61.8 percent last October. Thanks to this, we have almost 23.7 million employees in Italy, an unprecedented record.
Of course, there is no shortage of problems and the difficulties that have plagued our country for decades are always on the agenda. Poverty, female unemployment, undeclared work, taxes, bureaucracy, tax evasion, inefficiency of public administration and national debt are the main weaknesses that have been slowing down our country’s growth for at least 20 years. Nevertheless, we can say that with pride We have not been the last wheel of the European wagon for a few years now.
Despite business closures, mobility bans and the Covid-induced decline in consumption in the 2020-2021 biennium; the increase in electricity and gas bills that exploded in the summer of 2022 and the increase in interest rates decided by the European Central Bank to mitigate the inflation rate, which was almost 12 percent in Italy in the last quarter of last year; The economic/social measures taken by recent leaders to alleviate these difficulties have had the desired effect. That is, they avoided a social crisis and guaranteed an economic recovery that no one had foreseen. Nearly.
We remember that between 2020 and 2022, between non-refundable contributions, refreshments, compensation, income support measures, tax credits, etc., the Conte 2 and Draghi governments made 180 billion euros available to families and companies.
However, to mitigate the high bills, the Draghi and Meloni governments have provided an additional 90 billion euros in aid. In total, over 270 billion were made available, which “numbed” the negative effects of the pandemic and high energy costs. Of course, this money was not always well spent and/or ended up in the pockets of those who needed it most. Furthermore, this increase in spending has contributed to a significant increase in our national debt, which remains among the highest in the world. However, these are resources that we have allocated to prevent the collapse of the country’s economy, and the result has largely been achieved.
Among the 20 euro area countries, the demographically smallest countries recorded the highest growth. Compared to the pre-Corona period, Ireland actually grew by 33.1 percent, Malta by 14.4, Cyprus by 14.2, Croatia by 13.4, Lithuania by 8.3 and Slovenia by 7.7. In contrast, major countries experienced significantly smaller changes.
If, as mentioned above, Italy recorded +3 percent, Spain +2.3, France +1.8 and Germany a very modest +0.7. The European average was +3.5 percent. In 2023, the growth forecast for our country is likely to be +0.7 percent, a value well below the estimated +2.4 for Spain and slightly below the +1 for France. Germany, on the other hand, remains in recession with a change of -0.3 percent compared to 2022.
At the territorial levelthe region that has overcome the crises that have hit the country in the last 4 years better than the others It was Lombardy that grew by 5.3 percent compared to 2019. Emilia Romagna follows with +4.9 percent, Puglia with +3.9, Friuli Venezia Giulia with +3.5, Trentino-South Tyrol with the +3.4 and the Veneto with +3.3. Of Italy’s 20 regions, only Liguria and Tuscany have not yet made up the ground lost to Covid and the crises that followed. The former still has to recover 0.8 points of GDP compared to 2019, the latter even two.
Lombardy and Veneto will drive the country’s economy in 2023. In these two regions, GDP is expected to grow by 0.9 percent compared to 2022. This is followed by Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Trentino-South Tyrol and Lazio, each with +0.8 percent. Immediately afterwards we see the regions of Emilia Romagna, Valle d’Aosta, Piedmont and Tuscany, which are expected to grow by +0.7 percent. At the bottom of the ranking are Basilicata and the Marche, which will record an increase in gross domestic product of +0.3 percent compared to the previous year.