According to a study published in the last few hours, leaving the European Union was not a lucrative deal. On the contrary: measured only in terms of lost investment, it cost the UK 29 billion poundscorresponds to approx 32 billion eurosthousand pounds per family.
The analysis published by the newspaper Guardianwas conducted by a senior official at the Bank of England. Jonathan Haskelan outside member of the bank’s monetary policy committee, claims in the dossier that private sector investment was “abruptly halted” in the years following the decision to leave the union.
Haskel argues that the UK economy began to contract after the referendum, losing ground on the trend of the previous six years and “has suffered much more than other developed countries,” leaving a gap that has left lasting scars.
The study ignites the controversy amid a difficult situation for the UK economy, which is struggling to bounce back and is suffering from the Covid pandemic
The effects of the inflation wave are difficult to feel. Last week, British bipartisan leaders reportedly met privately with executives from multinationals and supranational institutions at an estate belonging to the United KingdomOxfordshire to understand how to stop the decline.
Most studies examining Britain’s economic decline focus primarily on trade. The Bank of England compared
The UK’s current level of trade with the foreseeable future ahead of its exit from the EU single market in 2019: the gap would be 3.2% of GDP until 2026. TheBudget Responsibility Office, who is an independent forecaster in the service of His Majesty’s Government, estimated a GDP down 4% in the long run compared to the level that would have been reached if the UK had stayed in the EU.
The simulations performed in Haskel’s study, on the other hand, examine productivity: “The current penalty is about.”1.3% of GDP“It says in it. That 1.3% of GDP, the official explains, is equivalent to “roughly £29 billion, £1,000 per household”. By 2026, the estimated loss is about 2.8% of GDP.
Meanwhile, four years later, there are still unanswered questions, such as those of Border controls between Ireland (Irish Republic, EU Member State) and Northern Ireland (part of Great Britain).
To avoid establishing a physical border on Irish territory, controls were essentially shifted to the passage between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. According to the British newspaper telegraphAn agreement on the matter is due to be announced within two weeks and – according to the progress on the agreement – goods moving between the UK and Northern Ireland will no longer be subject to physical customs checks thanks to a ‘traffic light’ system.