Libya, the deconstructed mosaic that appeals to everyone

Italy has always had a connection with Libya strategic relationship. It is the first trading partner of Tripoli with shops for 12 billion euroswhich corresponds to about a quarter of total imports.

The Libyan economy is at rest 97% on gas and oil, a sector whose investments are however blocked by eleven years of war and divisions between East and West. These investments are waiting to be resumed to exploit the rich gas fields in the sea off Tripoli, with projects in which the Italian Eni is the protagonist: in Libya since 1959, Eni never left the countryis the first foreign company and co-owner of the gas pipeline connecting Mellitah to Gela since 2004.

The problem remains the reliability of one Divided Libya. With the mediation of United Nations, United States, Egypt (supporting Califa Haftar’s Cyrenaica), e Türkiye (an ally of Tripolitania led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh) has been struggling for months to reach an agreement for the already missed late 2021 political elections that should reunify the country.

But Tripoli and Tobruk are in some ways both counterparts of the Italian mission, which while only stopping in Dbeibeh’s Tripoli, also involves the Noc, the state oil company now run by a Haftar man, Farhat Bengdara.

In fact, it is Bengdara who signs the related agreements with Eni new 8 billion in investmentsDespite protests from parallel Prime Minister Fathi Bashaga, he feared Meloni’s mission could turn into formal recognition of the opponent.

The file is more complex migrants. Agreements with Italy to improve coastal patrols in recent years have failed to stop human traffickers who fuel illegal emigration by sea, as control of the territory is in fact in the hands of dozens of armed gangs and armies, often accomplices of criminal organizations are.

For a real fight against the illegal migration business, the country must be stabilized and reunited. A delicate game complicated by the interests of other countries towards Libya.

The maze of tribal conflicts, the lusts of ambitious neighbors

Egypttogether with the United Arab Emiratesis close by Cyrenaicaa large eastern region bordering Egypt, commanding the national army General HaftarProtagonist of the civil war that broke out in 2014, two years after the fall of Gaddafi, with the aim of taking control of the whole country, especially the oil company and the central bank, seizing Tripoli and overthrowing the national government Accord was then run by Led by Al Serraji and supported by Turkey and Qatar.

So along with Egypt right there is the other country that is directly implicated in the Libyan issue Türkiye that in 2020, when the fall of Tripoli seemed imminent during the siege, it intervened militarily in the conflict, rescuing Al Serraji: both by sending troops, mainly mercenaries; and by using their drones to bombard the Cyrenaica army.

Turkish intervention pushed Serraji and Haftar to the ceasefire, which came about in August 2020, and then to the agreements – brokered by the United Nations – that installed the provisional government of Dbeibeh in March 2021, tasked with overseeing the planned elections December 24, 2021, for the political reunification of the country.

This Elections never took place, for a series of disagreements about the “rules” related to the candidatures. Both Dbeibeh and Haftar intended and still intend to run for Libya’s leadership, but a series of vetoes prevented them from finding a common “constitutional” basis that would allow either to run for the presidency.

The agreements also provided that prior to the vote, foreign troops present in the country would be withdrawn, including a contingent of Wagner mercenaries sent by the government Russia in support of Haftar.

Another point that had to be achieved before the elections was the disarmament of private militias, followed by the reunification of the armed forces and security apparatus.

All commitments that were never kept, while Turkey, in the general confusion, concluded agreements with Tripoli that violate international law, on the basis of which it claims the gas fields of the eastern Mediterranean.

All of this is still being discussed.

THE Talks between Libyan factions For months they have been taking place in Cairo, with Egyptian mediation, between delegations from rival legislative bodies, namely the House of Representatives, which has its seat in Tobruk and supports the Bashaga government, and the High Council of State, the “Senate”. is based in Tripoli and supports Premier Dbeibeh. Two weeks ago, after the last round of negotiations, House Speaker Aguila Saleh announced there was agreement on the rules for candidacy and said she was optimistic about the possibility of running for election next September go . The optimism was tempered by Saleh himself a few hours later, by pointing out that the agreement was still in an embryonic stage. The head of the State Council, Khalid al Mishri, used the same words, dampening the enthusiasm of international observers.

A very complex painting by Penelope that explains why Italian diplomacy also works closely at international level with Egypt and Turkey, countries crucial to achieve the goal of concrete stabilization of Libya.

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