Upb: “Italy is the country in the Eurozone with the most restrictive budget policy. However, not in line with EU recommendations.”

It's no surprise, but here it isParliamentary Budget Office, which adds another piece. Not just there Financial policy the government Melons For 2023 and 2024, in contrast to the election campaign announcements, it was very restrictive: if you look at the course of the election campaign Primary expenditure that was actually it the most restrictive in the entire eurozone. The tendency to do so Close the cords The crisis on the stock markets affects all countries of the single currency, due to the gradual withdrawal of anti-inflation measures and the entry into force of the new stability pact, but in no other country is it so pronounced.

The indicator studied by the PBO is the indicator used by the European Commission, the so-called “Fiscal policy stance“, which can be translated as “budget orientation”: measures the stimulus – or brake – that executive measures exert on economies. It measures the gap between the actual development of primary expenditure relative to GDP (of course also taking into account the contribution of ). European funds) and a reference value calculated assuming that growth is consistent with the health of the economy and inflation. Technical details aside, suffice it to say that when the reading is positive, the country tightens monetary policy. Here it is: The euro area's fiscal stance is 0.5% of GDP for 2023 and 0.6% for 2024, that of France and Germany is average. The Italian reaches instead 1.6 in both years.

The result, explains the independent body that reviews governments' economic forecasts and assesses compliance with budget rules, depends on the withdrawal of many measures against high energy prices, but also on the Redefining construction premiums – Super bonuses and deductions for the renovation of facades – which entails a reduction in the item, i Grants for private investments and through their accounting reclassification, which reduces capital expenditure.

Net primary spending, which excludes interest on debt and the cyclical component for unemployment benefits and measures Flat rateis a fundamental variable since it should be the main parameter that the Commission takes into account when assessing compliance with the new pact, which is still being negotiated in the trilogue. There is no good news on this front: as Brussels communicated last November and confirmed today by the EU Commissioner Valdis DombrovskisAlthough spending is on a moderate path, overall growth is assessed as “not fully in line with July recommendations”. This is because the super bonus has since been used more than expected and “Changes in the law which have changed their nature and reduce their expected impact on spending in 2024.” But let's leave it at 2023, the year for which the opening of one is likely Infringement proceedings. Also because Italy only partially respects the recommendation for support measures against the EU dear energy: “The plan is to abolish these measures by 2024, but not to use the associated savings Reduction of net debt.

Rome should therefore “be ready take the necessary measures “As part of the national budget process, to ensure that fiscal policy in 2024 is in line with the Council's recommendations.” However, among the main euro area countries, only budget law applies Spain he respects her completely. There France carries risks of failure and Germany was asked to reduce support measures in the energy sector, in addition to the fact that the Constitutional Court ruling on the debt brake mechanism “could require the adoption of further consolidation measures” for 2024 and subsequent years.

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